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OK (and TX) Rain / Lakes
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Okie Boarder
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PostPosted: May 23, 2015 5:29 am    Post subject: OK (and TX) Rain / Lakes Reply with quote

We're about to break a record for May and potentially all-time single month for rain. One of the biggest lakes around here, Texoma, has gone from under normal to almost ready to go over the spillway (24') in about a month. Several other lakes are at or near the top of the flood pool. I wish we could send Cali some of this water.

http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/old_resvrept.htm

http://www.news9.com/story/29133051/more-rain-storms-in-oklahoma-over-memorial-day-weekend

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Last edited by Okie Boarder on May 26, 2015 10:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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goofyboy
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PostPosted: May 26, 2015 3:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Austin, Wimberly, San Marcos, Houston - are all under water. Houston got popped with 10" in 3 hours last night. The whole city is damn near shut down.
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PostPosted: May 26, 2015 4:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Our snow year sucked ash. I didn't shovel once, let alone snowblower. Now, we've had one of the wettest Springs on record, but apparently that doesn't have a huge impact on our snowpack. Weather person put it like this. "Rain waters our lawns, snowpack fills our lakes." Strange weather...
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Okie Boarder
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PostPosted: May 26, 2015 5:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goofyboy wrote:
Austin, Wimberly, San Marcos, Houston - are all under water. Houston got popped with 10" in 3 hours last night. The whole city is damn near shut down.


Crazy...saw some of that on the news this morning. Sounds like everyone around the southern plains is now getting hit, and the lakes are sending lots of water from up here downstream.

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Okie Boarder
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PostPosted: May 26, 2015 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Currently releasing 172,000 cfs...that's a good amount of water.

http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/EUFA.lakepage.html

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chavez
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PostPosted: May 26, 2015 6:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We obviously didn't get much around here for the winter. We are also having a fairly mild May, with temps not expected to hit 90 until maybe late this week. We have been getting a lot of t-storms (thankfully they have been wet) up top though, and the downpours associated with them do flow down to the reservoirs here. It helps, but only very little. Some lakes here, despite the sh|tty snowpack, are roughly where they were last year and a few are better than last year. Still, by the fall things are going to be pretty bleak. We desperately need a very wet winter, fingers crossed for a strengthening of the weak El Niño event currently being shown.


Seeing these pictures/videos from Austin and Houston are just crazy. Glad their reservoirs are filling quickly, sad to see it happen too quickly and flood/damage so much. Seeing the before/after pics of Lake Travis is crazy.

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PostPosted: May 26, 2015 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was in Palm Springs for the weekend. Lots of talk about water restrictions. I was surprised by how much grass there was on the blvd's. That's pretty easy to cut out and save a ton of water...
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Okie Boarder
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PostPosted: May 26, 2015 7:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Seeing these pictures/videos from Austin and Houston are just crazy. Glad their reservoirs are filling quickly, sad to see it happen too quickly and flood/damage so much. Seeing the before/after pics of Lake Travis is crazy.


I heard Travis came up around 20' in just a day or two.

Texoma came up around 30' in a month.

We definitely have shattered records for rainfall this year.

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jt09
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PostPosted: May 26, 2015 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://travis.uslakes.info/Level.asp

5/20 - 634.2
5/21 - 635.2
5/22 - 636.6
5/23 - 638.1
5/24 - 647.6
5/25 - 652.9
5/26 - 656.2

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PostPosted: May 26, 2015 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, more like 4-5 days, then. Even that is a huge change in just a matter of a few days.
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PostPosted: May 27, 2015 4:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've seen Lake Travis did the same thing in 2001. It had been dropping all of 2000 and summer of 2001. Filled back up in one week. It's an amazing sight to see.
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PostPosted: May 27, 2015 7:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Starting to rain here in South Austin and Westlake again. this has been one crazy month.
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PostPosted: May 27, 2015 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

23' to go and Travis is full pool again. It sounds like upstream lakes are dumping as much as they can from what I've been reading.
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PostPosted: May 27, 2015 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i don't think we'll get to full this summer. we've filled the deep channel area so the rest of the way will take so much more total volume to move the needle upwards.

we only added 1.5" in the last 24 hours w/ all the watershed runoff.
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PostPosted: May 27, 2015 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The upstream flood gates are already shut. I don't think marble falls was open longer than a day????

I'll take whatever we can get.

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PostPosted: May 28, 2015 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is an interesting view. Go back to early May and see the difference.

http://www.golaketravis.com/webcam/

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Last edited by Okie Boarder on May 28, 2015 9:58 am; edited 1 time in total
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jt09
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PostPosted: May 28, 2015 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jt09 wrote:
the rest of the way will take so much more total volume to move the needle upwards.


someone did the math for this: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/individual/travis/rating-curve/twdb/2008-07-01
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PostPosted: May 28, 2015 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote



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PostPosted: May 29, 2015 4:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's cool seeing it all together instead of a day at a time.
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jt09
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PostPosted: May 29, 2015 8:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cool before/after pics w/ slider bar: http://projects.statesman.com/news/lake-travis-then-now/
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PostPosted: May 29, 2015 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very cool...interesting to see a lot of those docks sitting on the ground that are now floating. It looks like many of them may have floated downstream or been removed.
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PostPosted: May 29, 2015 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jt09 wrote:
i don't think we'll get to full this summer. we've filled the deep channel area so the rest of the way will take so much more total volume to move the needle upwards.

we only added 1.5" in the last 24 hours w/ all the watershed runoff.


It looks like 314,319 acre feet of water brought the lake from ~630' - ~658'.

An additional 314,319 acre feet would take the lake from ~658' - ~677.7' or almost another 20' according to your link.
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PostPosted: May 29, 2015 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i'm no maffamagician. here are some others who have been hashing it out on shaggy:
http://www.shaggybevo.com/board/showthread.php/133798-Lake-Travis-Countdown-to-All-Time-Record-Low-Level/page28

Quote:
A week ago, at 635', it took about 9,000 acre-feet to raise the lake 1'.

Right now, at 659', it will take about 13,500 acre-feet to raise it another 1'.

The final 1' rise to get to 'full' at 681.6' will take about 19,000 acre-feet.



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PostPosted: May 29, 2015 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know how likely it is to get that much rain again in the right places, but the amount that raised Lake Travis ~28' will now raise it an additional ~20'. As the graph above shows, as the lake fills, it takes more water to raise it 1'. Lake Buchanan, which is a few lakes up the Colorado from Travis, hasn't raised much compared to Travis and other Texas lakes. All the rain hit such that it was downstream or out of the Buchanan watershed area. If more rain hits at the Buchanan watershed or further up river, I would think Buchanan would keep most of it.
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PostPosted: Jun 15, 2015 4:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ohsix, here's a feature i just learned this morning: go to http://isthelakefullyet.com and click the volume button on the upper right hand side. pretty graphic example of what we're talking about.
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PostPosted: Jun 15, 2015 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It might get full depending on this storm coming from the Gulf...



billl.jpg

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PostPosted: Jun 15, 2015 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

most of the predicted paths track well to the east of the watershed basins:

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PostPosted: Jun 15, 2015 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://thevane.gawker.com/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-tropical-system-a-1711435869


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PostPosted: Jun 15, 2015 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i'm in houston weds and thurs for work, and a poker run on clear lake fri-sat-sun. Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad
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PostPosted: Jun 15, 2015 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flying out to Florida early Thursday am, hoping airport delays are over by then...
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PostPosted: Jun 16, 2015 4:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

so funny to watch all these predictions and how quickly they change.

here's the updated track model from around 7pm last night - notice no chance of going through towards austin. all tracks go up 45 to dallas and then north.





now this one from noaa around 9pm and it's aiming through austin on a much more western path:

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PostPosted: Jun 16, 2015 5:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jt09 wrote:
so funny to watch all these predictions and how quickly they change.

I had a feeling this was overhyped by the meiduh; I just checked with friends at my marina in Freeport re my house and the surge is well below my downstairs garage.

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PostPosted: Jun 16, 2015 6:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not related to Texas or Oklahoma at all, but here's a graphic of how the drought for the last 15 years has affected Lake Powell.

http://gizmodo.com/how-15-years-of-drought-has-changed-lake-powell-in-one-1711602015?utm_campaign=socialflow_gizmodo_twitter&utm_source=gizmodo_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow


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PostPosted: Jun 16, 2015 6:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's the latest from the NWS. Austin is near the middle of the projected path of Bill. Could be in for a whole lot of rain, especially on the east side of the area.


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PostPosted: Jun 16, 2015 7:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sounds like the track changes has it heading more towards central OK, rather than SE. Looks like we may be in for a good amount of rain. Right now, they are saying 4-6" for C OK.
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