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Putin on Ukraine: Dumb ass or Evil Genius?
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chavez
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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 12:10 pm    Post subject: Putin on Ukraine: Dumb ass or Evil Genius? Reply with quote

The Rouble just took a dump.
MICEX dropped 11% today.
GAZP dropped 14% today.
Tracking ETFs for Russia off 6-9% right now.

The markets (including his own) hate this right now. Financially speaking, this could be a epic disaster for the Russkies. Not that Putin seems to care...

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He is holding together a huge house of cards. So my answer would be a bit of both. What does he stand to lose?

One has to wonder if he actually giggled when he heard the Obama soundbite in regards to "consequenses".

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73, short-term internal politically I think he has a net gain. Long term this could plunge their economy into recession.

IDK, just doesn't seem like a very wise move longer term.

House of cards seems to be a very apt description.

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73 wrote:
One has to wonder if he actually giggled when he heard the Obama soundbite in regards to "consequenses".

i giggled. i'm sure putin L'd OL.
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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You know he is emboldened after sticking Syria right up Obama/Kerry's collective arse.

Snowden for $500 Alex.

I am not advocating invasion/war/military action but he has ran circles around our leaders. My guess is he is betting at worst he gets a sternly worded note from Obama.

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think he would need to be more worried that he will get a sternly worded note from some of these guys: http://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/2014-02-28/cya/aaa6a

BTW, for funsies, click on that link tomorrow, once the market info under their names has updated.

I don't know why you are fixated on Obama's interaction (words) here. This is a much broader issue and we are only a piece of a large puzzle.

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ahhh, the good ol' days....


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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd say a little of both, and the house of cards is definitely a good description.
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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Based on what I've read and heard, some say Russia only wants Crimea for the Sebastopol port now that the Russian friendly gov't in Ukraine (not a NATO member) has been removed and Russia is afraid the new gov't won't give them access to the port. Others say this is a big deal because Russia will try to take Ukraine if they get Crimea, then they will go on to Poland (NATO member).

It would suck for the people of Crimea and Ukraine, assuming they don't want to be part of Russia, but what difference does it make to the U.S. (or NATO) if Russia takes Crimea and Ukraine? I thought most Americans were all for the U.S. turning in their "world police" badge.
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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Caught Sean Hannity station flipping on my drive home for 2 minutes before I had to switch the channel. Thought his head was going to explode. As much as I dislike Obama, I dislike Hannity even more. A large portion of Ukrainians have close ties to Russia from what I have heard, so "the Russians are coming" is likely not a big deal depending on which camp you are in. I wouldn't send my neighbors kids or my tax money to sort this out, that's for sure.
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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ohsix, both Russia and the USA (via the Budapest Memorandum - 1994) and the UK have all agreed "to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine".

It is a complex issue. Russian annexation of Crimea would be a clear violation of that, and any further incursion into Ukraine would likely trigger all out war. No matter what, Russia will have done some serious damage to their relationships around the globe if they don't pull out of Crimea.

I think this is a follow the money situation in the end, and right now the money is not happy with Vlad.

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez, so it wouldn't be okay to let Russia annex Crimea as long as everything ends there? My understanding is that Crimea was given to Ukraine when all were part of the USSR, but now Russia doesn't think Crimea is part of Ukraine and somehow Crimea is an independent country that somehow tied itself to Ukraine.
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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ohsix, the ties with Crimea (like most things in that part of the world) go back further than just Khrushchev "giving" it to Ukraine back in the 50's. From what I have read, it's currently about a 60/40 split between "ethnic Russians" and Ukranians/Tatars. IOW - there is a significant portion of the population who support Kiev.

Crimea is strategically important to Russia because of Sevastopol (where they have a major Naval base).

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am "fixated" on Obama because it is a brewing geopolitical fiasco with our strongest historical "foe". Mr. REDLINE just drew another redline.

I realize the current leaderships think is that they (Russia) are "no big deal".

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i generally hate bashing obama, or whoever, because it always sounds so partisan. however, in this case, it's pretty warranted.

granted, i'm not sure what he can actually do, but he sure is sounding like an idiot every time he, or kerry, open their mouths.
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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This isn't the Cold War so those hawks need to land.

That said, this administration is ill-equipped to handle Putin, so are most in Europe. Though the bravado is there, our current President lacks the skills to execute any plan that would put Putin in a place to reconsider. Not to mention we should be allying with Russia on so many other topics the channels should have been there to call up and say, "hey comrade, what's the deal?"

Likely temporary until Ukraine stabilizes, in fact this may have a stabilizing effect.

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only red line consequences I am aware of are of the sanction variety. Which in the situation is appropriate and warranted, and likely the only actions the entire west will really be able to take with respect to Crimea.

Thing is, economic sanctions could seriously impact Russia's economy which is already in a tenuous state. Today's MICEX and RUB action alone could be a precursor to a recessionary period for them.

I doubt highly that they feel Russia is "no big deal" but I do think it is good we are not forcing ourselves into the driver's seat as far as negotiations go. We are not as resource dependent on Russia as many of our NATO allies so it's likely for good reason.

I honestly have no clue what any other POTUS would do in this situation. Saber-rattle? Remain silent? I just don't see any great options here.


I agree with Nor*Cal - in general the USA and our Euro allies are not well equipped to deal with Putin - certainly not politically.

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

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I doubt highly that they feel Russia is "no big deal"


He slammed Romney on this point 18 months ago. Right?


Its also quite ineffective to rattle a saber when in the last 12 months it was rattled and then dropped like a hot potato.

Hence, sternly worded note.

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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Putin and the Russians still see Ukraine as part of their "sphere of influence" and want to keep it that way. You could see this coming for some time now. Ukraine has been hurt by having a poorly functionally economy, corrupt governments, a split between eastern and western Ukraine, and a history of Russian interference.

The West doesn't have a lot of cards that they can play. Europe needs Russian oil so I doubt they can hit them with any serious sanctions and I don't think anyone really wants military intervention. Putin only loses if he overshoots and does something so egregious that the West is forced to act.
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PostPosted: Mar 03, 2014 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe I'm playing devils advocate but if the USA had a strategic base, say United States Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, and a new quasi Cuban revolution began that threatened the contractual lease that was in place. Then lets say that a 1/5th of the country was actually former and current USA citizens. How in the hell do you suppose we would react?
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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

RT anchor Abby Martin spoke out against Russia's military action against Ukraine during broadcast on Monday.

"Just because I work here, for RT, doesn't mean I don't have editorial independence and I can't stress enough how strongly I am against any military intervention in sovereign nations' affairs. What Russia did is wrong," she said at the end of RT's Breaking the Set.


http://mashable.com/2014/03/04/abby-martin-speaks-out/

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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sounds like Kerry is opening our wallets, to the tune of $1B.
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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okie Boarder wrote:
Sounds like Kerry is opening our wallets, to the tune of $1B.


He's about $14B short of Putin's offer.

The Ukrainian treasury was looted by the ousted government and the country is basically insolvent. That said, those dollars went somewhere and there are bankers in Austria, Switzerland, England, Monaco, and Lichtenstein who could solve Ukraine's money problems by returning those dollars. Some are: http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_02_28/Switzerland-Lichtenstein-Austria-lead-moves-to-block-Ukrainian-politicians-assets-0753/

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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hopefully it will stay that way and our wallet closes back up.
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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nmballa wrote:
Maybe I'm playing devils advocate but if the USA had a strategic base, say United States Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, and a new quasi Cuban revolution began that threatened the contractual lease that was in place. Then lets say that a 1/5th of the country was actually former and current USA citizens. How in the hell do you suppose we would react?

We may "lease" the land from Cuba, but they don't cash our checks, never have (only once in 50+ years).

Quote:
He slammed Romney on this point 18 months ago. Right?

Yes he did. Doesn't mean it was incorrect.

Quote:
Its also quite ineffective to rattle a saber when in the last 12 months it was rattled and then dropped like a hot potato.

Agreed. Syria was very obviously mishandled. This is likely why the words coming from the administration did not allude to military action.



Check out this:

That adds up to nearly 10bb....

I'm going to go way out on a limb here and say that these guys may have lobbed ol' Vlady one of them "sternly worded notes". Money talks, bolshevik gets transported to a Siberian gulag.

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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

Quote:
He slammed Romney on this point 18 months ago. Right?

Yes he did. Doesn't mean it was incorrect.


What?

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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez - what am i looking at in that infographic? $$ lost over what time period? and why are gates, slim and buffet included?
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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jt09, http://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/2014-03-03/cya/aaa6a

It's a list of all billionaires, sorted by Russians first, then all other nationalities, in descending order of net worth and their calculated net worth change from the previous day.
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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73 wrote:
Quote:

Quote:
He slammed Romney on this point 18 months ago. Right?

Yes he did. Doesn't mean it was incorrect.


What?

What do you mean, what? Yes he slammed Romney - specifically he mocked Mittens for citing Russia as our #1 geopolitical "foe". Do you believe that Russia is actually our #1 geopolitical "foe" right now?


jt, what ohsix said - it shows Gates and Slim (greyed out) because that's just the way Bloomberg's site works. Slim lost a sh*tload too, being an oil baron he probably had inter-related investments. Gates also lost a bunch, but likely in line with the day change in MSFT.

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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gracias
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PostPosted: Mar 04, 2014 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The what was because I didn't understand if you were saying Romney or Obama was wrong.

If or if not they are the number 1 geopolitical foe, it is not disputable that they are a top foe. I am sure a strong argument could be made that they are. Certainly, China ranks right there as well.

Russia is certainly no ally.

Internal pressure from the big$ in Russia May we'll solve this issue. I don't discount it. I do question the Bubb Rubb known as Kerry and Obama. Especially given there track record dealing with Putin. In fact the former may give them the image of having brought about about a positive conclusion

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PostPosted: Mar 05, 2014 8:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

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PostPosted: Mar 05, 2014 8:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That is a pretty big Uh-oh.
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PostPosted: Mar 11, 2014 8:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This guy says it better than I could ever hope too.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303795904579431273717815640?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303795904579431273717815640.html

Quote:
As Mr. Obama and friends see it, by seizing Crimea Mr. Putin has lost the battle for global public opinion. "I think everyone recognizes that although Russia has legitimate interests in what happens in a neighboring state, that does not give it the right to use force as a means of exerting influence inside that state," scolded Mr. Obama.

This is of a piece with the notion that geography no longer matters; that borders, resources, the high ground, the warm-water ports and everything else that nations have fought over since time immemorial are superfluous in our 21st-century world.



Quote:
Then, as now, liberal democracies were both burned and burned out by war. Then, as now, economic problems and the thirst for "normalcy" made them turn inward. Then, as now, American presidents believed in the necessity of disarmament, the sanctity of international law and the importance of leading by moral example. Then, as now, the liberal democracies were consumed by a sense of guilt over their own past supposed misdeeds. Back then it was the "Carthaginian Peace" of Versailles. Today, it is the witless argument that we have no standing to criticize Mr. Putin's seizure of Crimea after our own invasion of Iraq. (On this point: Who exactly is Crimea's Saddam ?)

Then, as now, too, the rogue regimes of the day soon figured out that the liberal democracies weren't interested in policing the world order. In 1931 Japan invaded Manchuria. A year later, a fact-finding mission sent by the League of Nations reported that Tokyo probably hadn't been acting in self-defense when it took northeast China. Japan walked out of the League, and it was on to Nanking. Meantime, Italy developed a taste for Abyssinia.

Here is the connection between the U.S. capitulation in Syria and the invasion of Crimea, which Mr. Obama and his defenders are so eager to deride. The connection isn't necessarily causal. It's environmental. America is in retreat; in his speech last September on Syria, Mr. Obama explicitly endorsed the view that "we should not be the world's policeman." So now we're living in the broken-windows world of international disorder. The rogues look around. When they sense an opportunity they seize it, calculating that they will pay no price.

They have paid no price.

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PostPosted: Mar 11, 2014 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"They have paid no price*"

*Yet

What should we do then Bret?



I'd read the rest, but I have no interest in subscribing to the WSJ as it is of no use to me.

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