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jt09
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PostPosted: Dec 05, 2014 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i'm of the opinion that the saudis are doing what they are told, and helping squeeze iran/russia right now.
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PostPosted: Dec 05, 2014 8:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$2.25 today in KC. I can't believe $1.99 in OKC-that is pretty damned sweet since I figured it would never drop below $2 again in my lifetime. Too bad it isn't summer to where I can fill a 50 gallon tank for closer to $100 than $200.
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PostPosted: Dec 05, 2014 9:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's my response on a Texags thread about Saudi Arabia and oil price day or two ago.

Quote:
I've posted this before, but U.S. shale production is a tiny factor, if any, in Saudi Arabia's production decisions. They learned in the early 80s that cutting production won't preserve oil price for long and they only lose market share. Reports say SA's lifting costs are $2-10 per barrel and on average the cheapest in the world. If you ran a business that produced goods for $2-10 at what point would you reduce production of those goods? I doubt it would be at a selling price of $80 or $70 or $60 or even $50. Especially if you knew that you lowering production would just mean other producers increased production.

If their goal was to challenge U.S. shale production, they could look all the way back to 2009 to figure out that all price does is throttle shale production because of its steep decline. If U.S. rig counts drop by 50%, you'll see a 30-40% decrease in U.S. shale production in 1 year. Then, you're right back to a supply shortage.

I don't think Saudi Arabia has any good reason to cut production and they get several geopolitical benefits from the price dropping. Further I think Iraq and Libya will continue to increase production and the stronger U.S. dollar is going to hurt the price of oil.

That msn article in the OP was clearly written by someone who doesn't understand the oil business. Rig owners (drillers) and producers are different types of companies. The price at which U.S. oil is profitable depends on the cost of services which swing wildly with the cost of oil which governs demand for services. At service prices 2 months ago, the average break even price is probably $65-$75/bbl. At service prices in April of 2009, average break even price was probably ~$40/bbl. Another factor is cost of capital as that can vary by company and their leverage ratio. At $75 oil, some companies can't afford to drill because all their production income is going to overhead and debt service. You'll see this especially in companies that are levered 3-3.5x earnings. The companies that are levered 1.5-2.5x earnings will probably have to cut exploration significantly and the companies at 0-1x earnings can probably hold steady assuming they don't want to slow down just to let margins correct.


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PostPosted: Dec 05, 2014 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jt09 wrote:
i'm of the opinion that the saudis are doing what they are told, and helping squeeze iran/russia right now.


I have to agree with JT here.

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PostPosted: Dec 05, 2014 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^(ohsix) your in it(oil industry) so I am not going to pretend to be on the same level regarding the industry.


But doesn't it matter equally to the Saudi's what they have committed to their population in "standard of living" social programs. If all those models are based on 100 oil they can be just as troubled with 50 oil as the 3.5x levered company.

I gotta believe they are managing to market share right now though.


And from an outsider, the "they will keep fracking, exploring, digging" line has an awful similar tone to "real estate always goes up"

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PostPosted: Dec 05, 2014 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73 wrote:
But doesn't it matter equally to the Saudi's what they have committed to their population in "standard of living" social programs. If all those models are based on 100 oil they can be just as troubled with 50 oil as the 3.5x levered company.

And from an outsider, the "they will keep fracking, exploring, digging" line has an awful similar tone to "real estate always goes up"


I'm not sure what SA's national budget looks like, but it's hard to believe they would plan on $100 oil forever. They do have the ability to increase production if they need the money, but decreasing production really doesn't do them any good if it only props up prices so that others increase production which is what happened in the early-80s. They should have a pretty attractive balance sheet should they need to borrow money as well. I just don't see any reason for them to decrease production.
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PostPosted: Dec 05, 2014 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Saudi Arabia's command economy is petroleum-based; roughly 75% of budget revenues and 90% of export earnings come from the oil industry. It is strongly dependent on foreign workers with about 80% of those employed in the private sector being non-Saudi.[204][205] Among the challenges to Saudi economy include halting or reversing the decline in per capita income, improving education to prepare youth for the workforce and providing them with employment, diversifying the economy, stimulating the private sector and housing construction, diminishing corruption and inequality.

The oil industry comprises about 45% of Saudi Arabia's nominal gross domestic product, compared with 40% from the private sector (see below). Saudi Arabia officially has about 260 billion barrels (4.1×1010 m3) of oil reserves, comprising about one-fifth of the world's proven total petroleum reserves.[206]

In the 1990s, Saudi Arabia experienced a significant contraction of oil revenues combined with a high rate of population growth. Per capita income fell from a high of $11,700 at the height of the oil boom in 1981 to $6,300 in 1998.[207] Increases in oil prices since 2000 have helped boost per capita GDP to $17,000 in 2007 dollars, or about $7,400 adjusted for inflation.[208] Taking into account the impact of the real oil price changes on the Kingdom's real gross domestic income, the real command-basis GDP was computed to be 330.381 billion 1999 USD in 2010.[209] Oil price increases of 2008–2009 have triggered a second oil boom.


From Wiki

The barrel price has to be a problem no matter what the lift price is.

Unless someone wants to try and convince me the Saudi citizenry is going to be hip to a BIG haircut.

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PostPosted: Dec 05, 2014 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ohsix, they have instituted a number of social programs there to maintain close to 0 unemployment. They reason that the employed young man is far less likely to be a radical.

The article I linked goes in to some detail on it. I don't think they have budgeted everything on $100/bb but I'm guessing it might be $70 or so. The article notes that if they depress prices they might start running deficits - something I'm not sure they are too keen on doing for an extended period.

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PostPosted: Dec 16, 2014 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/12/15/saudi-arabia-is-playing-chicken-with-its-oil/

The consequences of Saudi policy are impossible to ignore. After two years of stable prices at around $105 to $110 a barrel, Brent blend, the international benchmark, fell from $112 a barrel in June to around $65 on Friday. “What is the reason for the United States and some U.S. allies wanting to drive down the price of oil?” Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro asked rhetorically in October. His answer? “To harm Russia.”

That is partially true, but Saudi Arabia’s gambit is more complex.

The kingdom has two targets in its latest oil war: it is trying to squeeze U.S. shale oil—which requires higher prices to remain competitive with conventional production—out of the market. More broadly, the Saudis are also punishing two rivals, Russia and Iran, for their support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in the Syrian civil war. Since the Syrian uprising began in 2011, regional and world powers have played out a series of proxy battles there.

While Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been arming many of the Syrian rebels, the Iranian regime—and to a lesser extent, Russia—have provided the weapons and funding to keep Assad in power.

Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the traditional centers of power in the Arab world—Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states—have been nervous about the growing influence of Iran: its nuclear ambitions, its sway over the Iraqi government, its support for the militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas, and its alliance with Syria.

The conflict is now a full-blown proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which is playing out across the region. Both sides increasingly see their rivalry as a winner-take-all conflict: if the Shi’ite Hezbollah gains an upper hand in Lebanon, then the Sunnis of Lebanon—and by extension, their Saudi patrons—lose a round to Iran. If a Shi’ite-led government solidifies its control of Iraq, then Iran will have won another round.

Today, the House of Saud rushes to shore up its allies in Bahrain, Yemen, Syria and wherever else it fears Iran’s nefarious influence. And the kingdom is striking back at Iran, and Russia, with its most effective weapon.

Russia and Iran are highly dependent on stable oil prices. By many estimates, Russia needs prices at around $100 a barrel to meet its budget commitments. Iran, facing Western sanctions and economic isolation, needs even higher prices. Already, Iran has taken an economic hit from Saudi actions. On Nov. 30, as a result of OPEC’s decision not to increase production, the Iranian rial dropped nearly six percent against the dollar.

The kingdom believes it can protect itself from the impact of the price drops. It can always increase oil production to make up for falling prices, or soften the blow of lower profits by accessing some of its $750 billion stashed in foreign reserves.

Still, Saudi Arabia is playing a dangerous game—there is little evidence that authoritarian regimes like Russia and Iran would change their behavior under economic pressure. Worse, the Saudi policy could backfire, making Russia and especially Iran more intransigent in countering Saudi influence in the Middle East.

With ongoing proxy wars in Syria and Iraq, Saudi Arabia risks instigating an oil war with Russia and Iran—a war that the kingdom can perhaps win in the short term. But like sectarian conflict, Saudi actions threaten a conflagration that can spin out of everyone’s control.
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PostPosted: Dec 16, 2014 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brought to you by the Bilderberg group. Wink
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PostPosted: Jan 12, 2015 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Filled up for $1.49/gal today!
I see Goldman has slashed their forecast to $40/bbl, at least in the near term. Made it through a few rounds of layoffs here at work, but had several friends that didn't. Sad
Fortunately, my wife got picked up by another major after being unemployed for 3 weeks.

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PostPosted: Jan 12, 2015 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We're running around $1.64 around here.
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PostPosted: Jan 12, 2015 10:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So why is the price of diesel still so high? Very frustrating, my wife drives a diesel and i was considering buying one until recently, just cant justify the price difference anymore.
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PostPosted: Jan 12, 2015 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jgriffith wrote:
So why is the price of diesel still so high? Very frustrating, my wife drives a diesel and i was considering buying one until recently, just cant justify the price difference anymore.


Refinery capacity in the US is one of the main drivers as I understand it. We simply aren't configured for enough production.

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PostPosted: Jan 12, 2015 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JR

Does that have anything to do with the Heavy oil issue down in Louisiana and Texas? The refineries down there need the heavier blends and that little pipeline that Obama keeps putting off seems to be able to provide the heavy stuff then need?

Diesel typically is higher in the winter because of the Heating oil demand in the Eastern US. But the whole lack of winter I would have thought that even Diesel would have come off more as well. Propane is pretty much free these days.

Diesel is super high in these parts as well and it really has more to do with the lack of refinery capacity in Western Canada. We're getting screwed on gas as well though as it's still probably over 2.75 bucks a gallon up here.

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PostPosted: Jan 12, 2015 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bambamski, it has more to do with how the refineries are setup to break down crude. It's very expensive to shut down and reconfigure a refinery to produce a different ratio of refined products. Although diesel may bring a higher price, it is not worth it to refiners to reconfigure to produce more diesel to gasoline. Therefore, we'll continue to have more buyers than sellers of diesel vs. gasoline.

The shortage of heavier/sour oil has a little bit of an effect on refiners, but they're still able to buy the heavy/sour oil. Sour oil actually trades at a premium to sweet right now because most of the new production is sweet and the refiners are setup to refine a blend. Again, they can shut down and reconfigure to refine a sweeter blend, but right now it's cheaper to simply pay more for the sour crude.
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PostPosted: Jan 13, 2015 11:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One theory I have heard poised is that the big players (exxon, shell, bp, etc.) are driving down prices to collapse the small firms that have popped up around the fracking industry as this won't be sustainable for long at these prices. Once the small guys go bust the big guys will pick up the claims in bankruptcy. Then control of supply is reset and prices will go back up.
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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 8:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ That is called Macroeconomics.
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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nmballa wrote:
One theory I have heard poised is that the big players (exxon, shell, bp, etc.) are driving down prices to collapse the small firms that have popped up around the fracking industry as this won't be sustainable for long at these prices. Once the small guys go bust the big guys will pick up the claims in bankruptcy. Then control of supply is reset and prices will go back up.


I would take that with a grain of salt. I'm a small guy in this business and I'm finalizing an agreement with a major to take 50% interest and operations in a sizable acreage position that belongs to them.

Many of the majors do similar JVs with smaller operators.

Now, there are plenty of overleveraged companies that will go bankrupt and much of their acreage will be picked up by other companies out of bankruptcy, but the booms and busts of this business benefit all oil companies pretty much equally regardless of size.
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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll set one thing straight right now, nobody is "driving" the price down. Market manipulation laws there isn't an oil company out there that wants a 1 billion dollar fine from the FERC. None of the majors want 48 dollar oil as they're bleeding cash just like everyone else. The difference is they can take a short term hit. Just like Ohsix said, this is when the Major's start dumping properties that don't fit their overall portfolio and the little guys can operate and maintain the properties for much less. It's the circle of life in Alberta if you have the cash.

If you think prices are going to snap back in two months you might want to give your head a shake though. There is still so much production that hasn't been tied into the market yet, so production is still going to grow for at least the first quarter of 2015. Until we see drilling halted which we will in 2015 and the declines start to eat up the surplus inventory prices will remain lower.

We could easily see two years if OPEC continues along the path...

They are throwing out the word Recession in Alberta for 2015. To put it into perspective we never saw a downturn in our economy during the whole melt down. From 2008 (the highs) to present our housing is probably up an additional 35% from the all time highs. I think this year we come crashing to reality though.

Suncor announced 1000 jobs being cut just yesterday, Shell announced 300. I think total this week would be in the 2500 job cut range and we are just getting going.

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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bambamski wrote:
I'll set one thing straight right now, nobody is "driving" the price down.

yes, someone is. saudi arabia.
Bambamski wrote:
There is still so much production that hasn't been tied into the market yet, so production is still going to grow for at least the first quarter of 2015.

this has nothing to do w/ supply/demand.
Bambamski wrote:
We could easily see two years if OPEC continues along the path...

it won't be 2 years.
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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes Saudi Arabia and they can do what ever the eff they want to manipulate the market, there's nothing the FERC can do.

This has nothing to do with Supply/Demand????????????????????
you might need to explain that to me, because I kind of think it has everything to do with supply and demand.

the Saudi's have enough cash to keep everyone happy for at least 2 years. Their goal is to ensure investors money goes to other markets, you aren't going to achieve that in three months. We'll see volatility, I'm not saying that but you won't see prices in the 80 to 90 dollar range in 2015. I'll put money on that.

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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bambamski wrote:
This has nothing to do with Supply/Demand????????????????????
you might need to explain that to me, because I kind of think it has everything to do with supply and demand.

the Saudi's have enough cash to keep everyone happy for at least 2 years. Their goal is to ensure investors money goes to other markets, you aren't going to achieve that in three months.

how about you just read what was posted on this page about why saudi arabia is doing what they are doing?
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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jt09 wrote:
yes, someone is. saudi arabia.
I agree with this, but this also works contrary to their budget due to their investment in various social programs such as 100% employment. I think it's going to be some interesting times for them in not too long.

Right now it's a game of supply an demand. Our inventories are at an unprecedented level and the output is still there. I think we haven't seen the bottom of the prices yet. The plays that I am familiar with (Bakken) are in a world of hurt right now since there's almost a $20/bbl gap right now. Peak production on the wells is pretty short, so supply will go down in a hurry, but capex investment is already starting to grind to a halt.
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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jjaszkow wrote:
jt09 wrote:
yes, someone is. saudi arabia.
I agree with this, but this also works contrary to their budget due to their investment in various social programs such as 100% employment. I think it's going to be some interesting times for them in not too long.

they have $750 billion in cash reserves and if they want the price to go back up, all they have to do is sell less oil.
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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Absolutely correct. They are assuming that they can outlast all of the other suppliers at this game. Makes sense when you look at the rest OPEC and countries such as Iran and Russia. Not as much when you look at more diversified markets such as the US and Canada. Will it hurt? Absolutely! But we've been through these sorts of cycles before.
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PostPosted: Jan 14, 2015 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jt09 wrote:
jjaszkow wrote:
jt09 wrote:
yes, someone is. saudi arabia.
I agree with this, but this also works contrary to their budget due to their investment in various social programs such as 100% employment. I think it's going to be some interesting times for them in not too long.

they have $750 billion in cash reserves and if they want the price to go back up, all they have to do is sell less oil.


Is 750 B a bullet proof war chest is a global game of commodity chicken?

I dont think so.

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PostPosted: Jan 17, 2015 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73 wrote:


Is 750 B a bullet proof war chest is a global game of commodity chicken?

I dont think so.


I sort of agree with this. This 750 B number keeps getting thrown around, but it doesn't really mean anything with no context. What assurances does that give them? How long will it last? How much are they willing to spend and/or how much debt are they willing to take on?

*Disclaimer: I'm probably the least familiar/qualified to comment here, but it's the interwebz, so F it.
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PostPosted: Jan 18, 2015 6:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73 wrote:
global game of commodity chicken?


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1106382/Europe-plunged-energy-crisis-Russia-cuts-gas-supply-Ukraine.html

Europe plunged into energy crisis as Russia cuts off gas supply via Ukraine

Russia cut gas exports to Europe by 60 per cent today, plunging the continent into an energy crisis 'within hours' as a dispute with Ukraine escalated.

This morning, gas companies in Ukraine said that Russia had completely cut off their supply.

Six countries reported a complete shut-off of Russian gas shipped via Ukraine today, in a sharp escalation of a struggle over energy that threatens Europe as winter sets in.

Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments from Russia through Ukraine.

Croatia said it was temporarily reducing supplies to industrial customers while Bulgaria said it had enough gas for only 'for a few days' and was in a 'crisis situation'.
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PostPosted: Jan 18, 2015 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That is scary stuff.

People do insane things when they dont have food or shelter.

Frankly it is hard not to think of it as an act of war.

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PostPosted: Jan 21, 2015 6:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, filled the truck up for $45. $2.12 here.

I am so glad that Barack has pursued his fossil fuel based energy policy and after six long years of work we are finally seeing the rewards. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Jan 23, 2016 6:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This was last week. It's about 10 cents lower this week.


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PostPosted: Jan 23, 2016 7:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i paid 1.95 for premium yesterday. when i bought my car, i budgeted for 4.00
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PostPosted: Jan 24, 2016 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm still paying +\- $2.15 for diesel in SLC, price fixing I tell ya!
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PostPosted: Jan 24, 2016 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

think the lowest i've paid lately is $1.68. typically $1.69 in my hood, but i've seen $1.59 around town.
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