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Okie Boarder
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 1:56 pm    Post subject: Gas Prices Reply with quote

Lots of talk about where gas prices will end up this summer...predictions?

I think we're going to see a national average above $4.50 a gallon.

Our boat may not see as much time on the water this year.

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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we will see 4.25-4.50 here in CA.

Nationally I would think we will be right at 4/gal.

Personally: don't care. Driving habits/choices have been permanently modified already. As a side benefit, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing a whole lot of the underutilized SUVs around here start disappearing.

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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Gas Prices Reply with quote

Okie Boarder wrote:
Lots of talk about where gas prices will end up this summer...predictions?

I think we're going to see a national average above $4.50 a gallon.

Our boat may not see as much time on the water this year.


Why not buy a 1000g tank and load up now. Whats the going rate in OK right now?

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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jryoung, could you imagine trying to do that in CA? I wonder how many agencies would have to bless off on such an undertaking? Laughing
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

also don't care, bought a new monthly subway pass today for $104. that's my entire months worth of transportation costs
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm breaking the motorcycle out of storage tomorrow.
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:24 pm    Post subject: Re: Gas Prices Reply with quote

Okie Boarder wrote:
Lots of talk about where gas prices will end up this summer...predictions?

I think we're going to see a national average above $4.50 a gallon.


Do you wanna bet?

Laughing
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i am still pussyfooting on finding and acquiring a wrx. going from 32 mpg on regular to 22ish on premium will suck. i would be lying if i said gas wasn't a concern... among others.
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

STPHNSN23, then don't do it. What the hell is the fun in driving a WRX if you are worried about putting gas in it?

If it were a toy, cool. But if you have to DD the thing, what's the point?

You are going to have:

Higher fuel costs
Higher insurance costs
Higher maintenance costs (oil, service, etc)
Higher consumables costs (tires, brakes)

And for what?

It's probably pretty clear, but I'm pretty much beyond all the "fast car" stuff at this point. I have my MC as my toy, and if I wanted a "fast car" now it would be a street legal "track day car" and that's it.

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Okie Boarder
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jryoung, we're at about $3.25 right now.

microman, maybe we could do a pool and everyone can pick a number. Mr. Green

I know a lot of people who have already modified their choices and habits, as much as they can. I wonder what the next breaking point would be that would cause for another modification. Like if gas hit $10 a gallon, would people have to make another drastic change to lifestyle?

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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okie Boarder, he's joking about a bet between cameraboy and lcap that lcap lost and never paid up.
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okie Boarder wrote:
I know a lot of people who have already modified their choices and habits, as much as they can. I wonder what the next breaking point would be that would cause for another modification. Like if gas hit $10 a gallon, would people have to make another drastic change to lifestyle?


If we hit those numbers, we would likely do a lot more phone and web meetings.

IMO there is a breaking point at which alternative energy will *magically* become very, very viable. What I mean is biofuels (algae and waste-based) and natgas will *magically* become mainstream fuels for our ICE powered vehicles.

FWIW: I put gas in the petrol Jetta on Friday. It was 3.97/gal for 87. Diesel is still around 4.15.

We fill up each car about once every 2.5 weeks. The gasser goes about 300 of all city driving, the TDi goes around 450 (all city) on the same size tank.

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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With you already being at almost $4 a gallon, you don't see it hitting $5?
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

During an election year it is going to be real hard for Obama not to approve XL if prices increase as indicated. I'm still very curious as to how he is playing this.
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okie Boarder, we are out in front as far as prices go. So, we see the worst, first.

That said, I could easily see prices hitting 5 in places like SFO, but in OKC, unlikely.

IOW I don't think the national average will get that high.

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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not all too worried about summer gas. I average close to 25 mpg with my current mix of driving (1/2 city 1/2 highway). I also drive 10 times more now than I will in summer. My summer basically consists of one trip that's about 470 miles. Then I will drive about 50 miles a week after that. No trips over 4 miles. One of the joys of living on an island thats only 7 miles drivable road. Then I'll head back to auburn for the rest of the summer.
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez wrote:
I think we will see 4.25-4.50 here in CA.

Nationally I would think we will be right at 4/gal.

Personally: don't care. Driving habits/choices have been permanently modified already. As a side benefit, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing a whole lot of the underutilized SUVs around here start disappearing.


More like $5 in CA according to my contacts.

Several large refineries just closed, middle east is still unstable, and we're rerouting keystone XL to refineries in India and China.

Alternative fuels won't just magically appear. The biggest issue with all of the ICE alternatives are infrastructure for market delivery. Also, the manufacturers currently lack capacity which is going to be one of the cost issues this summer for petroleum (note refinery shutdowns). All the major refiners have invested heavily in alternatives and I do not think they are sitting on a major break-through. From what I hear scaling production is still an issue.

It is not terribly expensive to convert your car to CNG and even get a NG compressor at home. That being said I doubt people will go that direction.

I'm a huge proponent of algae fuels. Just think they are a number of years off.

If things get too terribly expensive I will ride the 3 miles to work and probably not use the boats much. Unless I retrofit to propane or NG. Or go buy a diesel Touareg which I might do anyways or a Diesel truck though a bit overkill for 90% of my driving.

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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From what I've tracked, CA stays $.50-.75 ahead of us most all the time.

I think the biggest impact group that suffers from the gas prices are commuters. I used to commute 37 miles one way when I lived in CA and I know a few friends still living there that are longer drives then that. The types of rises we've seen in the last few cycles of $.75-1.00 can easily translate into $100-200 a month for a decent amount of mileage commuter. That could easily impact a household budget in a negative way.

It will be interesting to see how the economy reacts if we end up where it is predicted.

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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

God damn 4 dollars a gallon again... WTF.


my 88 mile commute to my rural hospital preceptorship this summer is gonna suck....
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Definitely concerned about this. Normally prices go down in the winter and up in the summer. With them already at where they were during the summer, I fear 4.50+ is possible. I get about 15-16 mpg in my Xterra and am on a college budget, so it gets pretty rough pretty fast. Im definitely taking this into account with my summer internship search.
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Craig-R wrote:
also don't care, bought a new monthly subway pass today for $104. that's my entire months worth of transportation costs


Pay as you go! I spend way less than that monthly (well, except $400/month for parking my truck...)
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

'least it is in the Summer when this stuff happens, I try to bike commute as much as possible as soon as it warms up...
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Offshore fishing is going to hurt this year. At least we don't have to pay road tax on red diesel. Also, I just got a F150 Ecoboost (twin turbo V6) and its only getting an AVERAGE of 15mpg. I am disappoint.
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its all politics. My big fear is that keystone extension passes. Then we are all pretty much screwed.
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PostPosted: Feb 21, 2012 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im rockin 12mpg's in the Colorado. maybe 14 highway, a big maybe. Regular here is ~$3.50, premium $3.75, and diesel is $3.85. If it gets to $5 a gal, im goin to my parents house and picking up my diesel, 2000 dodge 2500 turbo cummins gets about 18-20 city.
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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nmballa wrote:
Its all politics. My big fear is that keystone extension passes. Then we are all pretty much screwed.


We've had this conversation on Keystone and while the decision is politics the consequences are all economics.

And of even more importance is the shut down of 3 American supplying refineries and perhaps a fourth. The profitability of refineries is slim even when the exploration and extraction divisions of the same companies are incredibly profitable.

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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 4:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have already adjusted my weekly budget for auto gas up to $4.50 a gallon. The difference is about $200 a month for two cars. That cuts into my entertainment budget heavily. boo.
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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 4:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It will only get worse if the fine folks from the Eastern sands keep blocking shipments to the EU.

Uhhh... Mr. Obama, can we drill here yet? No? Oh, Ok.

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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 5:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I remember when they were blaming George Bush the Texas oil man . Who fault is it NOW. Obama has sunk billions into wind and solar and blocked oil drilling and production for the last 3 years . What did you think was going to happen. Maybe when people have to choose between feeding the car of feeding the family they will wake up. Maybe you can survive by just drinking the liberal kool aid.
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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

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Maybe when people have to choose between feeding the car of feeding the family they will wake up


We WILL get to that point if we don't rethink our energy infrastructure and our entire mindset regarding suburban development and the lack of public transportation.

I see the commuting situation in cities like Atlanta and I think that we have SOME BALLS to complain about the price of gas, when it seems that the majority of it is burned keeping air conditioners on while sitting in hour long traffic jams with one person per automobile.


Hopefully, before it becomes a choice between "feeding the car or feeding the family," we will have a system of excellent public transportation. In major suburbs, you should ONLY have to drive to a bullet train hub.

OR, you can keep "drinking the neocon kook aid" and just complain about your right to drive a car wherever you want using cheap gas, and then be completely F'ed when the situation worsens and we are left with no public transportation infrastructure and no alternative energy plan.

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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 6:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure public transportation would work effectively in all locales with suburban areas and work areas. For example, when I lived and worked in CA, there was a train from my town in to LA. I worked more near Pasadena, and the nearest stop to my office was 2 miles away. There were at least 50 people at my company that could drive to a local train station and catch a train and we would all be dropped off two miles from the office. There were no options to get from the train station to the office from there other than to walk. Not real feasible.

I think developing public transportation where it makes sense can work well, then also work towards various other fuel solutions. (Natural gas and bio fuels are a good path that already has infrastucture to support it)

I do find it funny how much Bush was blamed for the high prices when he was in office, yet we haven't heard any blame placed on Obama. If the blame should be plaved on the Persident, why one and not the other?

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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

what is everyone paying right now? austin is right around $3.50 for 87 and i can still find it for $3.45 at several places near my office (poor side of town).
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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 7:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

paid 3.29 in Houston yesterday.



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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gas prices will skyrocket once the Isreal/Iran war starts. I'm banking $5-6/gal
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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2012 7:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rhawn wrote:
Gas prices will skyrocket once the Isreal/Iran war starts. I'm banking $5-6/gal

If that were to happen, it would be due to Iran trying to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran is dumb enough to try that, the USA (with the blessing of the Saudis) and our NATO allies will sink every Iranian naval vessel that even appears to be participating in the blockade, without ever leaving an air conditioned room onboard *insert naval warship here*.

I've got to think Iran knows there is no good outcome for them if they try to do something that stupid.

I do think if a war does happen, there will be at least a temporary spike to record territory.

Nor*Cal wrote:
More like $5 in CA according to my contacts.

Several large refineries just closed, middle east is still unstable, and we're rerouting keystone XL to refineries in India and China.

Alternative fuels won't just magically appear. The biggest issue with all of the ICE alternatives are infrastructure for market delivery. Also, the manufacturers currently lack capacity which is going to be one of the cost issues this summer for petroleum (note refinery shutdowns). All the major refiners have invested heavily in alternatives and I do not think they are sitting on a major break-through. From what I hear scaling production is still an issue.

It is not terribly expensive to convert your car to CNG and even get a NG compressor at home. That being said I doubt people will go that direction.

I'm a huge proponent of algae fuels. Just think they are a number of years off.

I'm more conservative in my view on this. When we spiked to 150/bbl and gas prices in CA peaked in the mid 4's. There were refinery problems then (TX/LA hurricane) and Iran was still a concern then. So yeah, color me skeptical that we will see 5 this summer. A breaking point was happening at 4.XX - and we were still under 6% (reported) unemployment. People were dumping SUVs like hot potatos, POS Geo Metros were going for 5k+, and you pretty much couldn't find a Prius or Jetta TDi to save your life (and if you did, you paid the ADM or you didn't get a car). We had a behavioral change occur, and for the most part, it's held - gas consumption has gone significantly down since the peak. See chart:



And here is the chart of CA prices over the last 5 years, with overlays for USA average and crude prices:


I do however, fully believe that there are technologies that are *almost there* to fully develop and use biofuels. The biggest hurdle in my estimation is money. If the $ are there, they will get fast tracked to the mainstream. Same for CNG. We already have a delivery infrastructure in place for that, just need to package the compressors and conversions correctly and do a little public education on the subject.

You already know I agree with you about algae based biofuels.

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