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los angeles is about to be completely f*ed
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eeven73
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PostPosted: May 02, 2014 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or take 10K of the 27K and spend 2 weeks living the California Beach Dream that every SoCal person espouses as there life Idea
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PostPosted: May 02, 2014 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73 wrote:
chavez,

Which makes it all the bigger problem for CA, right?

Thousands of double six figure jobs gone. Shrinking tax base for $200 Alex.

One guess what Sacramentos solution to a shrinking tax base is.


I don't have the figure fresh in my head, but CAs tax base is roughly 17,000 people. I think roughly 75% of our income taxes come from that group.

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PostPosted: May 02, 2014 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think a lot will follow. I don't doubt that at all.

Cali in certain areas is awesome, but we for damn sure have areas that would rival no-mans-land like Nebraska or MS. So I'm not saying that Plano is some kind of terrible - it's just a stark contrast to coastal SoCal.

I do think that article needs refreshing. CA has been adding quite a lot of jobs over the last 2 years. The net effect of the Toyota exodus will impact for sure, but it's not a horrible as it could have been a few years ago.


ohsix, they won't (or shouldn't) do that. Maybe a 500k 3000sqft home vs their former 770k 2800sq home. Their property taxes on that 770k home in Torrance will be half or less of the new taxes on their new property in TX. Obviously, their now non-existent state income tax will offset this a bit, but still.

FWIW:

770k in Plano with a 2.2% property tax rate = 17k/yr
500k (lets assume they bought their LA home years ago) in Torrance with a 1.1% rate = 5500/yr

So there would be 12k of their new-found annual income lost. Guess what? If this was a household of 4 earning 200k, that 12k would be roughly equivalent to the tax they would no longer be paying the state of CA. To see some real net savings, they would need to have a little bit cheaper house in this scenario anyway.


eeven - in this scenario POOF, your vaca money just went bye-bye.

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eeven73
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PostPosted: May 02, 2014 8:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

off set a bit?

9.3 % state tax.

there is 20k

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PostPosted: May 02, 2014 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73, ever heard of a net effective tax rate?

9.3% is nowhere near what they'd actually pay. I think my personal net effective rate (CA state taxes) is something like 4%

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eeven73
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PostPosted: May 02, 2014 8:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I don't have the figure fresh in my head, but CAs tax base is roughly 17,000 people. I think roughly 75% of our income taxes come from that group.


so then you don't worry about the 25% ?Confused

200K puts these families in the top 10%.

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PostPosted: May 02, 2014 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez,

So 8,000. Poof vacation back on.

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PostPosted: May 02, 2014 8:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73, that's for me after all of my deductions and such. I ran their numbers just straight up.

So I just ran them married joint 2 kids 200k gross, giving them 30k in mortgage interest, 6k in property tax, and $500 in charitable deduction....

Their CA tax would be 10250. That vaca can be done for 1750, but the Motel 6 might be calling.

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PostPosted: May 02, 2014 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez wrote:
I think a lot will follow. I don't doubt that at all.
Yeah, you're right. Anyone that wants to stay local has a year to find a new job. That's what i get for posting before I've had my pancakes I guess.
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PostPosted: May 03, 2014 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I may have missed it but are you guys assuming there is no adjustment for pay in TX? My guess is most that move will have their pay adjusted accordingly.
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PostPosted: May 03, 2014 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Data from a recent Gallup poll shows that people living in Connecticut and Illinois aren't too happy with their environment: Half of residents say that, given the chance, they'd move to a different state.

The states where people want to stay? Texas and Montana come out really well.

In Illinois, 50% of respondents want to leave, while only 49% do in Connecticut. Maryland is a close third, with 47% of respondents expressing the same desire.

But in Montana, Hawaii, and Maine, 23% reported they'd move if the opportunity arose. And only 24% of respondents felt that way in Texas.




To obtain the data, Gallup conducted at least 600 interviews with people aged 18 and older across the 50 states. The survey asked, "Regardless of whether you will move, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move to another state, or would you rather remain in your current state?"

And if you consider intention to move, Nevada comes out on top: 20% plan to move in the next 12 months.

In total, 33% of all people in the U.S. want to move to another state.
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eeven73
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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 6:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez wrote:
eeven73, that's for me after all of my deductions and such. I ran their numbers just straight up.

So I just ran them married joint 2 kids 200k gross, giving them 30k in mortgage interest, 6k in property tax, and $500 in charitable deduction....

Their CA tax would be 10250. That vaca can be done for 1750, but the Motel 6 might be calling.


You just proved my point.

The property tax(higher in TX) difference is offset by income tax(Higher in CA). So they still have 27K in mortgage savings, right? or they live in a 5ksqft house.

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 6:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73, my point was more about not moving to a palace in TX because the price tag is the same as their hovel in LA. Well that and the obvious differences in climate and geography.

Anyhow, yes, if they don't go nuts and buy a 770k home in Plano, instead buying a "modest" 500k home, they'd enjoy a sizable bump in their potential savings.

Now, if JR is correct, and they adjust pay accordingly, this is all out the window.


jt09, I can attest to the NV exodus. I could not get out of that place fast enough. And that was more than 10 years ago - and it's only gotten worse there.

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 6:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would like to know what kind of "adjustments" happen in these cases.

I don't know how a company is going to materially change a moved employee's compensation. Admittedly I have no first hand knowledge, but it would be hard for me to believe anyone taking anything more than a 10% haircut without serious attrition(maybe that is the goal).


Oregon has a bit of the same COL problem as California.(land use laws) I for one would GTFO if I had an opportunity to keep 30K more of my income each year. So I guess I am part of the 24% Laughing

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73, I can tell you that when my bro was moved to Austin by Apple, there was no adjustment and a significant moving bonus/allowance was given.

Now, that's Apple. Not Toyota - the company that brought you the same seats and switchgear in a 1984 truck and a 2004 truck.

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez,

So, anecdotally, how is his "happiness" with living in Texas?

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eeven73, Laughing

He moved back within a year.

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Game, Set, Match.

No one should ever leave CA. Laughing

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez wrote:
jt09, I can attest to the NV exodus. I could not get out of that place fast enough. And that was more than 10 years ago - and it's only gotten worse there.


As soon as I can afford it I'm buying a place in NV... I will be staying in CA, but I want a place in Incline/Crystal Bay or similar.

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I could move to our Austin office if I wanted to, as a result my pay would be adjusted to "market". Nearly all companies will adjust pay to market, that's the reason for moving into lower cost jurisdictions. Salaries and wages is the biggest line item on a P&L.

Companies may not make an adjustment up front, but would slow annual increases to adjust in time.

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jryoung wrote:
I could move to our Austin office if I wanted to, as a result my pay would be adjusted to "market". Nearly all companies will adjust pay to market, that's the reason for moving into lower cost jurisdictions. Salaries and wages is the biggest line item on a P&L.

Companies may not make an adjustment up front, but would slow annual increases to adjust in time.


Not all P&Ls.

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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez wrote:
He moved back within a year.

poosay! Arrow Arrow Wink
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PostPosted: May 05, 2014 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jt09, Laughing

Nor*Cal, I can say that Incline or Zephyr are two places I could definitely deal with. But Las Vegas/Henderson and Reno/Sparks and the rest of that wasteland can suck it!

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PostPosted: May 06, 2014 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alright, Texas, whenever you're ready to steal some of our tech jobs away...

...because we got some unruly landlords that we could send with them! Shocked Laughing

http://hoodline.com/2014/05/what-it-takes-to-rent-these-days



and yes, he rescinded the letter.

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PostPosted: Jun 25, 2014 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

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PostPosted: Jun 26, 2014 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I heard some camera company based in the SF area IPO'd today.
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PostPosted: Jun 26, 2014 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

they'll move to texas in 2 years! Laughing Mr. Green
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PostPosted: Jun 26, 2014 4:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laughing
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PostPosted: Jun 27, 2014 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.latimes.com/local/abcarian/la-me-ra-texas-gov-rick-perry-might-move-to-california-20140617-column.html

One of his advisors is from CA so???

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PostPosted: Jun 27, 2014 10:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

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PostPosted: Jun 27, 2014 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nor*Cal wrote:
http://www.latimes.com/local/abcarian/la-me-ra-texas-gov-rick-perry-might-move-to-california-20140617-column.html

One of his advisors is from CA so???


Probably a lot easier to get away with getting your dick sucked in the bathroom of the local club in LA that it is in TX.

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PostPosted: Jun 28, 2014 5:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

well, by a guy for sure.
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PostPosted: Feb 22, 2015 2:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I liked Warren Buffet's analogy of the California State Teachers Retirement System as a piece of dynamite with a very Long wick. http://ed100.org/teachers/pensions/

Just don't understand how they can pay out so much more than they take in- Each Year!
The teachers in Cal pay in 8% of their pay and employers match it. Anyone know more about this system?

In Ohio, teachers are paying up to 14% of their yearly income into the State system, and the employers match only 10%(Thanks Kasich) but, the system is solvent out another 30 years, I thought Ohio's system was pretty good but it looks like the average teacher pension in illinois is about $60,000 a year, but as you all know, illinois is Not in a good financial State.

Anyways, this situation will not close down the state of CA, it is just another factor which will cut it down a few notches.

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PostPosted: Feb 23, 2015 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

buckthis, everything is magnified by the sheer size of CA. That is to say, the crazy numbers you see in CA are likely similar in other states as a % instead of just seeing the $$. Still...

The govt is taking small steps by increasing the amount both districts and employees pay in to STRS. Realistically, it is not enough. I think a good starting point would be to push the employee portion of the contribution to around 10%, and gradually increase that number to whatever it needs to be to get solvent. It unfortunately will result in future teachers paying more than the retired ones ever did. It may even result in the termination of the program altogether, where future employees end up in a more common defined contribution program (like a 401k). A version of this is already available to employees - 403b - where they can make pre-tax contributions, but there is no matching.

Like most other pensions, these things were put in to place when the picture was supposedly better (newsflash - it wasn't). This is yet another situation of the shortsightedness (or maybe they knew and gave zero fcuks) of our parents generation screwing the rest of us and screwing us HARD. The projections used were around 7% which is far too high for a defined benefit plan of this size. This was commonplace at the time, because they all used the historical S&P (or something similar) with a small haircut as their basis for that projection. The S&P since 1957 (when the S&P hit 500 companies) is close 10% compounded annual return. They used far too small a haircut. Ideally, they should have been much more conservative.

The fun part about all of this is the state has to pay out. So, these liabilities will fall on the entire state, not just the STRS program.

The parts about the teachers not understanding the program are spot on. They couldn't even explain to you what their healthcare benefits are let alone how their pension works.

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PostPosted: Feb 24, 2015 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Example 1A why public employees shouldn't be allowed to Unionize.

They negotiated with themselves a sweetheart deal and John Q taxpayer eats the bag of stuff.

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