Wakeboarder Forum Index

 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   StatisticsStats   FavoritesFavorites   RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages  Log inLog in 
BlogsBlogs   

Interesting chart on US home values...
Goto page 1, 2  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Wakeboarder Forum Index -> Business and Finance
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 7:45 am    Post subject: Interesting chart on US home values... Reply with quote



Discuss....

_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 7:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well the red "x" clearly shows a downward trend. However, I disagree with the red "x".
_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 8:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-Ro, the red X knows all. Bow to the red X and give praise!

It is just fine over here. Maybe some porn filter at your work at work?

_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
ontrider
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 30 Jul 2003
Posts: 16491
City: Russia

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez, I can't see it either. But I agree with J-ro, the drastic incline in misuse of attached internet files in the US is causing the market to plummet and skyrocket at the same time, equally a double line graph and ultimately an X!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ontrider, you guys both suck. It's working fine for me.

Anyhow, quitchabitchin!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think your graph goes against your point. Look at 1940-1946. Market went up 62% and after a small dip has never gone below the high in 1948. In 1998-2006 it went up 82%. Factor in inflation and the value of the dollar and POOF, your theory goes to "Bolivion."
_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-Ro, I made no points.

That chart does factor inflation already. The correct way to read that chart is post-inflationary returns on that particular asset. 1890's 100 points is the benchmark.

So (very rough calculation), 99 point increase / 116 years = less than 1% per year gain (after inflation).

John had a better idea - take away the caption, and just leave a chart with dates & numbers - ignore the fact that these are homes. Then ask: is this an investment you would want to hold long term?

_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez, I just assumed your point was your normal opinion on the housing market right now. I also didn't read the fine print of the chart, although I do remember my grandparents saying houses were $10k back in the day. I was thinking they were full of stuff for a second. Interestingly, this makes it look like the increase as of late is more of a catch up in what values should be. ie: have they simply been extremely undervalued for the last 100 years in comparison to other investments. Thats if we are considering them investments and not places to live.

However, remove the last 5 years as an anamoly and the graph could be a graph of American prosperity. Note the drops after WWI and during the depression as well as after the 70's and after the 80's declines. The opposite being the prosperity after WWII, the start of the Industrial Revolution, the roaring 80's and now.

_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-Ro, I agree on the prosperity chart.

If this chart was localized for our area, the top right would be near twice as tall. Neutral

The title of the book is "irrational exuberance".

_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
smokedog2
Outlaw
Outlaw


Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Posts: 210
City: Cincinnati

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you bought in 1960 and sold in 1997 you, on average, made nothing.

If you bought in 1997 at 110K you are now worth 200k. So my 1997 300k is worth just under 900 Shocked

It is for sale

SD2

Oh, looking backward, no one should have bought a house since 2000 to be in a "good" investment.

Interesting but I'm not sold. I am so fed up with CEO compensation and fraud that I'm tempted to leave the market in protest. It is getting ridiculous.

_________________
If you are going to be stupid, you gotta be tough
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SD - a house is a place to live not an investment.


More fun...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

smokedog2, Damn, I bought in 2000. I am screwed.





(Approx. $250k in equity over 6 years, Damn that was a bad bad move)

_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
smokedog2
Outlaw
Outlaw


Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Posts: 210
City: Cincinnati

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At least it is not a red X Mr. Green

Do you have one for the market w/ inflation cut out?

Gov Bonds?

_________________
If you are going to be stupid, you gotta be tough
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

smokedog2, I will be working on a few in the days to come as I'd like to overlay the S&P onto that chart.

I already know that the S&P returns are going to blow the doors off of the home values, but I think it will be interesting to visually see the trends and how they stack up.

_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Aug 31, 2006 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is the S&P versus Home Values, inflation adjusted, for the past 15 years.
_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 6:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another reason for the recent run up versus historical data could be that in the last 20 years (But especially the last 5) people have started to see residential Real Estate as a form of investment or income stream. Causing the availability of affordable housing to decline thus increasing values up until a level of unattainability is achieved. Which is the point we are at now as inventories increase due to, IMO, three different types of owner. The person who got in over their head, the investor who is no longer receiving an income stream or wants to bag profits, and the normal selling cycle inventory.
_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
as inventories increase


Keep in mind, that we are flirting with all time highs (population adjusted) of available inventory. (Yesterday's count = 17,723)

The flippers are a noteworthy percentage of that number, as are the over their head folks. The normal cycle folks might make up the final quarter to third of the total for sale homes - assuming that normal = maybe 3-5,000 homes on the market (in the overall area) during the summer months.

Anyhow, everything is just speculation for now as the real story is just on the horizon. We have a cycle of ARM resets that are just now beginning to take place - and how that plays out is anyone's guess. Once that ARM reset wave is over, then we will hopefully see stability again. Until then, it could be painful for some who used more "creative" ways to "purchase" a home.

_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez, I think, and this is just speculation so go with me here, that your ARM reset cycle may not be as bad as everyone thinks. Here's why. The people who really had to stretch to get into a home went with an ARM, I think we can agree on that. However, most people I know of that did that, actually went with 1 or 3 year Arms in order to get an even lower first rate. The only people I know that got a 5 year ARM were those who were expecting an increase in income. So I think we have seen most of the ARM's already come due (I have seen this first hand unfortunately) and that is what was fueling the remainder of the re-finance business in the last 3 years. Also, we have seen 6 straight weeks of lower interest rates for home loans and with the Fed stopping it's rate increases (They had no choice due to the markets laughing in their faces at the inverted curve), the 10 yr rate is going to continue to trickle downward.

Just my 2¢

_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-Ro, I will dig up the numbers, but IIRC the data I saw showed the # of impending ARM resets due over the next 4 years to be astonishing.

The folks you know were among the smarter of the ARM users. There are plenty of not-so-smart ARM, neg am, and I/O folks out there that did 100% (or more!) financing on something they could barely afford even with the teaser intro rate. They did not look at what the payment could be after reset, and even if they did, (as you mentioned) they thought well hell the market won't ever come back down and I will just refi - probably because some inexperienced or uncouth realtor/mtg broker told them that home prices never decline and yay NASDAQ 5000.

Anyhow, there are literally tens of thousands of these folks in the Sac area alone. When the time comes, and they cannot refi as their LTV is 110+%, they will be stuck. As it stands right now, there are countless folks that are finding themselves in negative territory due to their indiscretions (autos, new boat, insane backyard landscape, fancy vacations, etc.). Do you really think that there are this many people in the Roseville area that can actually afford the AMG Benz, 750il, Carrera 4, Cayenne S, etc etc. I sure as sh*t don't. Irrational exuberance, indeed.

As for your comments on the Fed & 10yr, I agree, of course.

_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just for fun, here is a little snippet from a recent Bee article:

SacBee wrote:
Last year up to 77 percent of capital-area homebuyers used riskier adjustable-rate financing to help them buy homes they couldn't otherwise have afforded.


77 percent! If 50% of the 77% can afford it after reset, cool. If not......

_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unfortunately I do know a lot of people that borrowed 100% plus on 1 year ARM's.

However I see the R/E and mortgage industry swooping in and making good money on new products like the 40 year and fifty year loans. People will always look for a way to keep their home.

As for your assesment on those that overdrew their equity, I totally agree. I don't know how people afford all those brand new German cars. I mean most people don't have 20% to put down on a 75k BMW or Benz. That's a $1k car payment. And if they can afford that, you know they are overextended on a $4k house payment too. I don't know, maybe I am in the wrong industry or something.

_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
However I see the R/E and mortgage industry swooping in and making good money on new products like the 40 year and fifty year loans. People will always look for a way to keep their home.


J, (I know you know this) but you can't refi into a new loan if you are underwater. Unless the banks are going to start allowing 110% or more LTV...

Those that keep their heads above water, then yeah, for sure. I know some folks that may be candidates for that in the not too distant future.

Quote:
That's a $1k car payment. And if they can afford that, you know they are overextended on a $4k house payment too.


Hey, if I make 7k a month, why not spend every last penny every single month? I mean, I get to drive a cool car, right? Laughing

Whaddya mean insurance is 300 a month on this thing? My driving record is perfect and this thing has all the safety features! OH thats right if someone breathes on it wrong it costs a couple K to fix..... Laughing

_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Sep 01, 2006 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

J, (I know you know this) but you can't refi into a new loan if you are underwater. Unless the banks are going to start allowing 110% or more LTV...


You're right but there a lot of mortgage brokers that will do things that are not in their clients best interest if the client asks. (80/30 loans, 125% LTV loans, etc). It's all about how lucrative that loan is on the secondary market.

_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
8824
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 29 Jul 2004
Posts: 15136
City: Wilmington, Delaware

PostPosted: Sep 05, 2006 7:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-Ro wrote:
Quote:

J, (I know you know this) but you can't refi into a new loan if you are underwater. Unless the banks are going to start allowing 110% or more LTV...


You're right but there a lot of mortgage brokers that will do things that are not in their clients best interest if the client asks. (80/30 loans, 125% LTV loans, etc). It's all about how lucrative that loan is on the secondary market.


Big investigation right now about that point.

That is the reason they want all mortgage brokers to be licensed.

I like the chart with the population numbers.

I think the population increase along with the seedy brokers and creative financial vehicles have all played a roll.

So, what will happen next?

_________________
www.integrity-wake.com
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
smokedog2
Outlaw
Outlaw


Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Posts: 210
City: Cincinnati

PostPosted: Sep 05, 2006 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A RE investment ARM went from 5 to 7%. That is not a 2% increase, that is a 40% increase. with PITI - this thing has 0 cash flow.

Do that a lot and you are in trouble.

The bank is not returning my calls.

SD2

_________________
If you are going to be stupid, you gotta be tough
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Sep 06, 2006 5:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

smokedog2, You can lock a 30 year right now areound 6%. Why are you calling banks? They aren't in the business of home loans.
_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Sep 06, 2006 7:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-Ro, I think he is talking about investment property loans - which I thought carry a significantly higher interest rate than primary resi loans.
_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
jumalian
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Posts: 7625
City: san diego

PostPosted: Sep 22, 2006 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

yeah, why are you calling banks? you should be calling me!
_________________
my demo reel
DPC Films
Aubs wrote:
I'm thinking some island. And Alaska is not a choice.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Blog Visit poster's website AIM Address Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
8824
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 29 Jul 2004
Posts: 15136
City: Wilmington, Delaware

PostPosted: Oct 25, 2006 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez, Funny thing about all these charts and stats, the economist who puts them together.

Forget the results, a room of real estate economist will analyze the model and tear the model apart before the results. With that said, it is more important to look at the name of the economist before the results.


When it comes to RE, the best thing anyone can do is buy in a good location. The Chrysler building went for over 1B a few years ago ( if I am not mistaken). The buyer of this building when asked about the price replied "location location location".

_________________
www.integrity-wake.com
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Oct 25, 2006 9:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

When it comes to RE, the best thing anyone can do is buy in a good location.


Sweet, thanks for the advice Winthorpe. Rolling Eyes

_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
8824
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 29 Jul 2004
Posts: 15136
City: Wilmington, Delaware

PostPosted: Oct 25, 2006 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-Ro, I think you can still make money on a house today which seems to be contradictory to a few views in this thread.

But J-RO you are the master, I am surprised you are not retired yet or do you work just for fun?

_________________
www.integrity-wake.com
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
chavez
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville

PostPosted: Oct 25, 2006 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

muckmeister, you always can make money on a house if you have enough time.
_________________
Quote:
That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole.


RIP MHL 04/25/1958 - 01/11/2006
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Blog Visit poster's website
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Oct 25, 2006 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

muckmeister, I never said you couldn't still make money, but for 99% of people, that money wan't be in their backyard. Of course location is key, it has been since the day Caveman Fred bought that shack next to the tar pits and lost his a$$.
_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
8824
Ladies Man
Ladies Man


Joined: 29 Jul 2004
Posts: 15136
City: Wilmington, Delaware

PostPosted: Oct 26, 2006 5:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez, J-Ro, when i make my trip out west, i better have the company of the both of you together for at least one beer and maybe a few shots of vodka.

i know i will see J-Ro because i am staying in his dog house if the dog doesnt mind.

_________________
www.integrity-wake.com
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much


Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin

PostPosted: Oct 26, 2006 6:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

muckmeister, The dog doesn't have a house, she sleeps at the foot of my bed. You can sleep there too but my sleepers and paper better be in my hand by 4:30 AM. Laughing
_________________
Steal My Book

Read My Blog

RIP Leggester
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Wakeboarder Forum Index -> Business and Finance All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Goto page 1, 2  Next
Page 1 of 2

Add To Favorites

Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
             


Copyright © 2012 - Wakeboarding - Wakeboarder.com - All Right Reserved
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group