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eeven73
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Posts: 5377
City: Halfway
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 Posted: Mar 19, 2004 7:23 am Post subject: Artie Lange's Sure Pick |
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Arties sure pick yesterday S. Alabama + 34
Final Score Duke 96, S. Alabama 61 = 35
How the F does the book come up with these lines? How do you hit 34 as the line and be within 1 pt of final.
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Jim M
Wakeboarder.com Freak
Joined: 17 Jan 2003
Posts: 2933
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| Posted: Mar 19, 2004 7:44 am Post subject: |
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| Look at NFL spreads and over/unders, its almost spooky how close the majority of them are. Im guessing they use a big algorythm that includes lots of relevant stats like home/away, points per game, points allowed, the list goes on and on- its not guess work thats for sure! Maybe it involves Satan. |
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chavez
Ladies Man
Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville
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| Posted: Mar 19, 2004 7:59 am Post subject: |
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Jim M, Satan is involved. He manipulates the players to do his bidding so the spread falls just shy of the actual score. He rakes in billions a year due to his mystical powers! 
Seriously, some of these oddsmakers are human algorythm machines - they have been doing this so long they can usually get real close. The bigger books use a mix of computer models and human interaction to project scores.
I'm sure JT09 can give you the whole rundown on how it is done.  [/b]
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NorCalStud686
Wakeboarder.Commie
Joined: 18 Nov 2003
Posts: 1410
City: Nor*Cali-Forn-i-a
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| Posted: Mar 19, 2004 8:27 am Post subject: |
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Seriously, some of these oddsmakers are human algorythm machines - they have been doing this so long they can usually get real close.
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Like Robert Deniro's charictar in Casino. Great movie BTW 
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jt09
Ladies Man
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Posts: 22083
City: Austin
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| Posted: Mar 19, 2004 8:37 am Post subject: |
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A couple of months ago Sports Illustrated had a story on the linemakers in Vegas. It is incredible how accurate they are.
Remember this - a line is not about the score of the game, it is about getting the public to bet evenly on both sides of the line. |
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chavez
Ladies Man
Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville
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| Posted: Mar 19, 2004 8:41 am Post subject: |
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Remember this - a line is not about the score of the game, it is about getting the public to bet evenly on both sides of the line.
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Abso-freakin-lutely.
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jt09
Ladies Man
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Posts: 22083
City: Austin
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| Posted: Mar 19, 2004 8:46 am Post subject: |
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| LOL chavez-y-chavez! I started to reply after Jim M's post and then had to get on a conference call so I never saw yours. Too funny! I guess that is why I am the wb.com bookie.... Actually - I had more friends running numbers and tables/games in college than you can count. Our whole school was full of gambling degenerate!. |
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J-Ro
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
Joined: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 5662
City: Rocklin
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| Posted: Mar 19, 2004 8:46 am Post subject: |
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Exactly what JT said, I saw a documentary on how they make lines and get these major bookies opinions...pretty cool.
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chavez
Ladies Man
Joined: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 27375
City: Roseville
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| Posted: Mar 19, 2004 9:14 am Post subject: |
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jt09, let there be no doubt, you are definitely the WB.com bookie!!! 
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| Quote: | | That's Mr. Gingermex to you a$$hole. |
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eeven73
PityDaFool Who Posts This Much
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Posts: 5377
City: Halfway
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| Posted: Mar 19, 2004 9:15 am Post subject: |
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Remember this - a line is not about the score of the game, it is about getting the public to bet evenly on both sides of the line.
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I totally get the reason, but what is so incredible is the accuracy of a 34 point line. I mean that game could have been won by 50. I think that Satan definatly is involved. Or maybe someone from Vegas actually has access to a time machine 
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