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Gas Prices; OPEC, Reserves, and Enviromental Controls

 
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Nor*Cal
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 12:34 pm    Post subject: Gas Prices; OPEC, Reserves, and Enviromental Controls Reply with quote

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=al6JXdoKBeA0&refer=top_world_news

Interesting article. Raises some questions about how enviromental controls increase prices and OPEC's lock on the market.

Another question is raised in the first few lines.

Bloomberg.com wrote:
Economic growth is boosting petroleum demand, with the U.S. expanding in the second half of 2003 at the fastest pace since 1984.


Why do people keep talking like the econ is dead?

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Neognosis
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Because everyone knows a person or people who are either layed off or can't find a job for over 6 months.

Also, economic growth does not mean that the economy has recovered, it means it is RECOVERING.

For instance, when you start with 1 dollar and then you have 2, you have doubled you money. But you still can't afford a sandwich and a coke.......

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chavez
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 12:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

Because everyone knows a person or people who are either layed off or can't find a job for over 6 months.


Interesting that we have a 5% unemployment rate - which historically is very low.

I would also argue that some of those people had jobs/training that is now obsolete - but are not willing to re-train or accept other forms of work. These same people are the ones who have "given up" looking IMO.

You are correct to an extent - growth can mean recovering, but it can also mean that we have passed recovery and entered an expansion. The problem is there is a fine line between growth and recession - in a perfect world we would constantly straddle that line. Of course, the world is not perfect so we usually go up too fast and conversly fall too fast. However, If you look at the historical averages you will get a much better picture of the state of the economy.

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Neognosis
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

Interesting that we have a 5% unemployment rate - which historically is very low.


does that number exclude those that have "stopped looking?" I think it does. I can't argue numbers with you, so I'll bow out here.

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chavez
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cameraboy, no that figure does not, but I addressed that issue in the next couple of sentences.

If you are willing to work, there is a job out there. Just because you aren't willing to accept a few less $$ because your skills aren't in demand doesn't mean that plenty of other jobs don't exist.

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Nor*Cal
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More interesting lines from the article...

Bloomberg.com wrote:
OPEC's current strategy is ``squeezing the commercial stockpiles, to keep them as low it can,'' said Sheikh Zaki Yamani, the former Saudi Arabian oil minister.


So the EU is going after Bill Gates for Anti-Trust violations but OPEC is allowed to conduct business along these lines?

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Neognosis
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So do you think it's ok for former auto workers who made 40-50K a year to accept fast food jobs making 5.25 an hour? That is economic recovery? That's acceptable to you, for the standard of living to plummet? As long as there is A job? What are you saying here Chavez?
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I believe we are in the starting stages of a recovery. To me it still feels like we are in a recession. The people that I know that have jobs arent spending money and others cant get jobs. I have always strived hard at work but I use to have the feeling if I lost my job it was no big deal. Now I worry about lossing my job even though I give the company 110%. I tell every person I know in school to open their own business...Corperate America SUCKS........
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chavez
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cameraboy, I am not saying they should go flip burgers. I am saying if their jobs are obsolete, then they best go out and re-train for a new career.

When the going gets tough the tough get going. So they better get tough.

Tbonez, a great deal of people in the US are doing just that - going into business for themselves in one form or another.

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Dave W
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cameraboy- What chavez doesn't know about is that we live in western New York. Western New York is usually one of the first areas to get hit by a recession and the last to recover from it. Not sure why, but then our wonderful politicians (please! No Hillary cracks here folks, I didn't vote for her) decide that raising taxes is the way to fix it all. Sad
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez-y-chavez, agree with you a hundred percent. My girlfriends dad just recieved notice that he is soon loose his robotic welding job at a plant building gmc truck frames. But he kind of expected it for awhile and is about a year from graduating with an assosciates in biomedical engeneering and maintenance. He knew that the outsourcing of his current form of work was happening so he took the proper steps. He is gonna face some serious down time here for the next year to two, but he is on his way to makeing it back. he dosnt bitch about it, just says thats what happens. you just gotta adapt.
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chavez
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dave W, I know this is harsh and it sucks, but sometimes you just gotta pick up and move to where the jobs are.

It also helps when your elected officials are not retarded Wink

(which is something I really can't say being from Cali - look at our wonderful senators - if there was ever a poster child for AGB you could take your pick of either!!!!!!!)

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Dave W
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 6:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chavez-y-chavez wrote:
Dave W, I know this is harsh and it sucks, but sometimes you just gotta pick up and move to where the jobs are.




Not taken as harsh at all chavez, it's just the plain old truth. With each passing day at my current low paying junky job I more seriously contemplate heading elsewhere. Things have started to look up a little bit around here. There have been more job listings lately in my field, I've been going to more interviews, but I just haven't landed anything yet. If I get offered this one position that I've expressed an interest in, (it's a long shot but it's my dream job) I'll be out of here like a fat girl in dodge ball.

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chavez
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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2004 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

I'll be out of here like a fat girl in dodge ball.


Laughing Laughing

I'm gonna have to remember that one!

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BillJ
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PostPosted: Mar 17, 2004 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's an interesting article about unemployment rates - the official gov't rate is 5.6%. But if you add up all the categories, then the rate is almost 10% - that's high unemployment.

The article is here: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P73979.asp and the detailed data directly from the gov't is here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
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chavez
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PostPosted: Mar 17, 2004 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BillJ, that's great but has the unemployment rate always been calculated that way? Confused

If so, then it doesn't change the fact that we are still at historically low unemployment numbers.

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Pat McCarthy
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PostPosted: Mar 17, 2004 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unemployment stats are very easy to manipulate and hard to trust. Essentially after someone has been unemployed for a certain amount of time they "get pushed off the books". I'm not sure if they're deemed as "not looking for work" or what, but it makes the stats kind of weird.

It's very hard to trust economic statistics due to so many factors that go into how they're calculated and where the data comes from. I'm saying this from both sides of the argument...or any argument that have to do with these stats!

Regarding the economy, it depends on what you look at for if it's growing and doing well. In some areas it is, in some areas it isn't. Consumer spending is doing well because they keep giving us lower and lower interest rates to buy new cars, get home equity loans and respend the "savings", or tax cuts. They're short term stimuluses though, and the piper has to get paid at some point.

Someone made a good point about where the jobs shift as well. The USA has switched from a manufacturing economy up until the 70s into a consumption/services economy. Even a lot of that is now being outsourced elsewhere. I'm not saying outsourcing jobs internationally is necessarily bad, but in many ways it isn't good either. America is now lacking in the ability to manufacture something and sell it elsewhere for more money. And, our manufacturing employees get paid 10-20 times those employees in China or India or wherever. Why do Americans deserve to earn that much more for the same work?

Manufacturing things and selling them elsewhere for more money is how you close the trade gap. Every day more and more of the country's assests are owned by foreign investors and governments. It's a sticky situation.

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Dave W
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PostPosted: Mar 17, 2004 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pat McCarthy wrote:
Why do Americans deserve to earn that much more for the same work?



Two possible answers.

A: Because we have the best educated, most skilled workforce in the world.

B: Can you say "Unions"?


Disclaimer: I just stated two possible responses to Pat's question. I have no personal bias aor preference for either answer and am in no way attempting to state my opinion as fact or a preferable answer. I have reserved the right to have completely neglected to provide any number of possible alternative answers and instead just posted the first two that came to mind.

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