los angeles is about to be completely f*ed

[eeven73]

Stockton's debt holders are about to be completelty Bubb Rubb.

[jt09]

honest question, because i have no idea - are there texas cities going bankrupt as well?

[chavez]

I don't know of any tx cities going bankrupt right now - there is plenty of public debt but don't know that any city has reached that point yet. There have been some municipal bks though.

[eeven73]

I would, based on the Stockton situation, get any money i had in munis out post haste. Lots of speculation this type of muni bk could spread somewhat rapidly.

[Nor*Cal]

TX has two munis that have filed but I do not think they are cities. Like a water or public utility but similar in that they are a local govt. It's still pretty rare for cities but with the boomers retiring it will be interesting to see how most local govt. handles the increased load on their pension systems.

[jt09]

i'm finding: Grimes County MUD #1 and Official Committee of Bondholders and Hardeman County Hospital District.

neither one of those is anything close to a city. i can see how a mud could go bankrupt pretty easily, actually.

[Nor*Cal]

jt09, they're considered munis and are considered local governments but you're right now cities in TX.

[jt09]

except that they aren't governments in any way, shape or form. they are simply ways to get utilities into new areas.

[Nor*Cal]

[jt09]

A Tale of Two Oil States


While the shale boom lifts Texas, California sits on vast resources.

Texas and California have been competing for years as U.S. growth models, and one of the less discussed comparisons is on energy. The Golden State has long been one of America's big three oil producing states, along with Texas and Alaska, but last year North Dakota surpassed it. This isn't a matter of geological luck but of good and bad policy choices.

Barely unnoticed outside energy circles, Texas has doubled its oil output since 2005. Even with the surge in output in North Dakota's Bakken region, Texas produces as much oil as the four next largest producing states combined. The Lone Star State now pumps nearly two million barrels a day, and Texas Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman (who is also oil commissioner) says "total production could double by 2016 and triple by the early 2020s." The entire U.S. now produces about seven million barrels a day.

The two richest fields are the Eagle Ford shale formation in South Texas, where production is up 50% in the last year alone, and the 250-square mile Permian Basin. Midland-Odessa in the Permian is one of America's fastest-growing metro areas.

More than 400,000 Texans are employed by the oil and gas industry (almost 10 times more than in California) and Mr. Smitherman says the average salary is $100,000 a year. The industry generates about $80 billion a year in economic activity, which exceeds the annual output of all goods and services in 13 individual states.

Now look to California, where oil output is down 21% since 2001, according to Energy Department data, even as the price of oil has soared and now trades in the neighborhood of $95 a barrel. (See the nearby chart.)
This is not because California is running out of oil. To the contrary, California has huge reservoirs offshore and even more in the Monterey shale, which stretches 200 miles south and southeast from San Francisco. The Department of Energy estimates that the Monterey shale contains about 15 billion barrels of oil, which is about double the estimated supply in the Bakken.

Occidental Petroleum, OXY +0.82% the big oil player in California, has recently purchased leases from the Interior Department to drill in the Monterey shale, but in April a federal judge blocked the breakthrough drilling process known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," in the state. The judge ordered an environmental review of the drilling process that Texas, North Dakota and other states have safely regulated for years.

A large part of the explanation for the Texas boom and the California bust is the political culture. Despite their cars, California voters have elected politicians who consider fossil fuels to be "dirty energy."

The plaintiffs in the Monterey shale lawsuit were the local chapters of the Sierra Club and the Center for Biological Diversity. Rita Dalessio, chairwoman of the Ventana chapter of the Sierra Club, said, "We're very excited. We're thrilled" by the judge's ban, adding that "I'm sure the champagne is flowing in San Francisco." This attitude is prevalent among California's elite and wealthy.

California has also passed cap-and-trade legislation that adds substantially to the costs of conventional energy production and refining. The politicians in Sacramento and their Silicon Valley financiers have made multibillion-dollar and mostly wrong bets on biofuels and other green energy. Texas has invested heavily in wind power but not at the expense of oil production.

Another contrast is that most Texas oil is on private lands, which owners are willing to lease at a price. In California much of the oil-rich areas are state or federally owned, and leasing doesn't happen because of political constraints. In California it can take weeks or even months to get approval for an oil rig. The average in Texas? Four days.

In short, Texas loves being an oil-producing state while California is embarrassed by it. And it's no accident that Texas has been leading the nation in job creation since the recession ended. The energy boom is creating thousands of jobs related to drilling but also in downstream industries such as transportation, high-technology, construction and manufacturing. The Texas jobless rate is 6.4% while California's is still the third highest at 9.4%.

Texans are realizing another benefit from oil production: money to fund government services. According to energy analyst Kathleen Hartnett White of the Texas Public Policy Foundation, "oil and gas production generated $12 billion in state taxes in 2012." This helps Texas avoid a state income tax. California's top marginal income-tax and capital-gains tax rate is 13.3%.

California has the natural resources and technical expertise to be the next Texas if it wants to be. What it needs is the political will. California Governor Jerry Brown at least says he wants to drill, but his dominant Democratic Party is so beholden to the already-rich greens that the state is paralyzed.

So the oil remains locked in the ground, as one million Californians look for work, as its schools and roads deteriorate, and as it keeps raising taxes to balance the budget. What a tragedy. Imagine how fast the U.S. economy would grow if California were more like Texas.
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424127887324695104578416871045535226-lMyQjAxMTAzMDAwNjEwNDYyWj.html?mod=wsj_valettop_email

[Nor*Cal]

jt09, trust me I'm on it...

[Faust]

Any projections as to how long the oil boom will last? Maybe I'll leave everything here in Wisconsin to jump in on the action... seems like money money money everywhere

[goofyboy]

It's not only the oil boom, but LNG as well. The LNG market is going nuts right now with different companies racing to be first to market with LNG plants. DOW, Anadarko, and others are building multi billion dollar facilities to refine a ton of products with LNG. The only thing they can't refine from LNG is gasoline.

[buckthis]

Just read an article in the paper that most workers in the oil fields make $100,000.00
so, when will we know when Los Angeles, California is completely fvcked?

[Nor*Cal]

[jryoung]

[quote="Nor*Cal"]

CA budget projections and plan were updated yesterday with 3.something billion in surplus and the Governor advocating restraint along with our liberal Speaker asking for more money for the "rainy day fund."

Then there's this: http://www.pcworld.com/article/2038729/techamerica-us-tech-employment-grows-slightly-in-2012.html

[jt09]

jryoung, the development in downtown austin is off the charts right now. here's a good thread w/ the top 20 or so projects, including the new ut med school, which is going where the erwin center is, so a new concert/hoops arena is coming as well. http://www.shaggybevo.com/board/showthread.php/124600-Downtown-Projects

[ohsix]

jt09, what's the story behind RunTex closing? I saw an article about an auction coming up and the owner claims failed expansion efforts took him under.

[jt09]

the guy that owns runtex is extremely personable, and charitable, but he's a horrible business person. i've long wondered how he kept his doors open, because you go in and there's so little product in such a large store. but they were ALWAYS sponsoring every local run under the sun, tons of other austin causes, etc. expansion may have been the straw that broke the camel's back, but from what i understand, he wasn't paying vendors, which is probably why there was never any product - and only limited to very few brands. he tried to open 2 new stores over the past couple of years, selling one location to a pawn shop over by where i live - yay.

[Nor*Cal]

Sacramento gets to keep the Kings and if Ranadive's group buys it looks like Uncle Burkle is building us a stadium in downtown! This is big news as Arco/Power Balance/Sleep Train is in the burbs. This is going to revitalize a part of town that rolls up the sidewalks after hours. Midtown is vibrant and fun and extending that another 16 blocks will be epic.

Not to mention our real estate market is on fire right now (values up 31% in the county). All good things, especially for my property value.

[eeven73]

I would be very cautious in the real estate market today. I have read a number of articles regarding reasons for current increase in values. Lots of stories of "Hedge Funds" going on buying binges to keep properties as rentals, I would expect a big dump if returns appear in other market segments. One example of a group in CA buying 1billion of housing per week.

[chavez]

eeven73, the reason why values are up so dramatically in certain areas can certainly be attributed at least partially to investment activity.

But it really is only a small part of the picture. The other part is lack of inventory, which is definitely what has been driving the market in the more desirable areas of CA.

The story about the HF buying the real estate in CA is about Blackstone. They were not buying 1bb/week, when they were most active they were buying about 100mm/week. Blackstone and similar outfits are typically buying the lower (distressed) end of the market, in cash, and spending up to about 1/3 of the value of the property to rehab it and get it out for rental. This does crowd out first-time buyers and lower-income folks to an extent, especially with so little in inventory on the bottom end.

That said, organizations have been doing similar things with other types of properties for years, but this is the first time we can point to a "hedge fund" doing it. Nevermind the fact that the other organizations that did this kind of thing in the past were similarly organized (LP's) and had similar requirements.

Anyhow, what these outfits are doing at this point are a net benefit to the community (rehabbing homes, creating jobs, paying taxes), time will tell where it all takes us...

[chavez]

Nor*Cal, I really really really hope this all goes according to plan now. Making that area a nighttime hotspot will be huge for the city. I can't wait to see it all finished - going to be awesome.

[scott a]

[eeven73]

I stand corrected on the amount. However, I would add the point that from anecdotal evidence the lower end of the market is what is selling overall.

100MM per week out of the market has to inflate the prices. Having one "owner" control the status(for sale/not for sale, upkeep, etc)of 4billion worth of lower end housing, has to be concerning in the situation that when they want "out" the stuff will hit the fan.

[ohsix]

eeven73, I'm sure Blackrock knows they would be foolish to dump $4 billion worth of real estate in one area at once. If they're going to sell all those houses to end users, they will have to ease out to not flood the market.

[eeven73]

ohsix,

agreed that would be the smart way. But, I think we can agree that sometimes circumstances don't allow things to be done the "smart" way. Blackstone has 29B in assets, if they really want/need to get out of a 4B position it isn't going to turn out their lights.

[chavez]

scott a, dude, I've been on the other end. I know exactly what it's like to be squeezed out. We were damn close to throwing in the towel when we bought our current place due to competition and quite honestly, illegal activity in the RE market. The place we bought was overlooked due to a leaky roof. What I knew that the bank that sold it to us didn't, was that the roof was under warranty!

Patience and persistence won out, and we got our place, after 6 months of looking, bidding, bidding, bidding, and bidding again.

Probably would have been easier if I just said f it and went chips all in and became house poor by buying at a higher price point. I'd have a kick ass house though. Man those 14 foot ceilings were nice.


So anyhow, been there, done that. If I can offer one piece of advice: remember this is a business transaction. Try not to tie emotion to anything. You can get emotional after the key is in your hand.

[jryoung]

A large part of the cash buyers are individuals. I sold my condo to a local cash buyer, easiest RE transaction I've ever done.

[Nor*Cal]

jryoung, did you get it in a briefcase and large bills?

[jryoung]

Nope, but I did see three bank statements with a combined value of $10M.

[eeven73]

I didn't want to start a new thread.

Figured this is somewhat of a Financial Themed thread.

I had a conversation yesterday with a commerical insurance agent and he pointed out to me that I should expect all insurance rates(not just health) to take double digit increases for the immediate term at least. His point was because insurance companies can not get a return on the excess from the bond market they have to make all their profits on the underwriting. Kind of an interesting unintended consequence from QEinfinity.

[jt09]

Step aside, Indianapolis and Jacksonville. Austin is moving on up.

With the fifth-largest population increase among all U.S. cities for the year ending July 1, 2012, Austin leapfrogged past Indianapolis and Jacksonville, Fla., to become the nation’s 11th-most populous city, according to population estimates released Thursday by the Census Bureau. Between 2011 and 2012, Austin’s population increased by 25,395, or an average of about 70 people a day. The Census Bureau estimated Austin’s 2012 population at 842,592.

The latest population figures extend a remarkable rise for Austin, which only last year passed San Francisco to become the nation’s 13th-largest city.

Mayor Lee Leffingwell said the news wasn’t unexpected, given Austin’s steady growth. “Our city is strong, and getting stronger every day,” Leffingwell said in a statement. “Our growth and economic success is not accidental.”

Of the 10 U.S. cities with the largest population gains, half were in Texas.

“Texas is continuing to dominate population growth in the country, and that certainly is being driven by economic growth,” state demographer Lloyd Potter said.

Smaller cities and suburbs in the Austin metro area also saw some of the nation’s fastest growth.

San Marcos had the highest rate of growth among all U.S. cities and towns with at least 50,000 people. Its population rose 4.9 percent between 2011 and 2012, to 50,001, according to the estimates.

Cedar Park saw the fourth-fastest growth among all large cities, increasing 4.7 percent to 57,957, and Georgetown ranked seventh, increasing 4.2 percent to 52,303.

In all, eight of the 15 fastest-growing large U.S. cities were in Texas. No other state had more than one city on the list.

[rul=http://www.mystatesman.com/news/news/local/austin-vaults-to-no-11-on-list-of-biggest-us-citie/nXzd4/?icmp=statesman_internallink_textlink_apr2013_statesmanstubtomystatesman_launch]linkage[/url]

[jgriffith]

Just wait, the population of Texas is about to shoot through the roof whenever illegal immigrants become legal/documented.

[chavez]

According to the stats I've seen, Austin metro had some of the highest growth in the country, at well over 5% annual in the past few years.

I would be wary of that type of growth, though. It's definitely a double-edge sword.